Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Reddit Email

Republish This Article

Close window X

Republish this article

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

You are free to republish this piece both online and in print, and we encourage you to do so with the embed code provided below. We only ask that you follow a few basic guidelines.  

Life expectancy may now predict American partisanship

by David Trilling, The Journalist's Resource
September 27, 2017

<h1>Life expectancy may now predict American partisanship</h1> <p class="byline">by David Trilling, The Journalist's Resource <br />September 27, 2017</p> <p>America in recent decades has seen increases to life expectancy, a proxy for quality health care. We gained, on average, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28492829">5.3 years between 1980 and 2014</a>. But the uneven distribution of these gains may be influencing political affiliation.</p> <p>Counties that enjoyed above-average gains overwhelmingly voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, according to a <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2017.303945">forthcoming paper</a>. The majority of people in counties with below-average gains voted for Donald Trump.</p> <p>Boston University’s Jacob Bor presents these discoveries in the <em>American Journal of Public Health</em>. He also compares voter shares by party in 2008 and 2016, two recent presidential elections that lacked an incumbent.</p> <ul> <li>In 781 counties, life expectancy increased less than 3 years between 1980 and 2014. In those areas, the Republican vote share grew 9.1 percentage points between 2008 and 2016.</li> <li>In&nbsp;counties where life expectancy grew more than 7 years, Democrats saw vote share grow 3.5 percentage points.</li> <li>For each year of life expectancy gain in a county, the Republican vote share fell 2.3 percentage points.</li> </ul> <p>Bor suggests the <a href="https://live-journalists-resource.pantheonsite.io/?s=opioids">opioid epidemic</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28747321">diverging access to medical care</a> are factors in this growing divide.</p> <p>This &lt;a target=&quot;_blank&quot; href=&quot;https://journalistsresource.org/economics/life-expectancy-predict-2016-election/&quot;&gt;article&lt;/a&gt; first appeared on &lt;a target=&quot;_blank&quot; href=&quot;https://journalistsresource.org&quot;&gt;The Journalist&#039;s Resource&lt;/a&gt; and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.&lt;img src=&quot;https://journalistsresource.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/cropped-jr-favicon-150x150.png&quot; style=&quot;width:1em;height:1em;margin-left:10px;&quot;&gt;</p> Copy to Clipboard

1

America in recent decades has seen increases to life expectancy, a proxy for quality health care. We gained, on average, 5.3 years between 1980 and 2014. But the uneven distribution of these gains may be influencing political affiliation.

Counties that enjoyed above-average gains overwhelmingly voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, according to a forthcoming paper. The majority of people in counties with below-average gains voted for Donald Trump.

Boston University’s Jacob Bor presents these discoveries in the American Journal of Public Health. He also compares voter shares by party in 2008 and 2016, two recent presidential elections that lacked an incumbent.

• In 781 counties, life expectancy increased less than 3 years between 1980 and 2014. In those areas, the Republican vote share grew 9.1 percentage points between 2008 and 2016.
• In counties where life expectancy grew more than 7 years, Democrats saw vote share grow 3.5 percentage points.
• For each year of life expectancy gain in a county, the Republican vote share fell 2.3 percentage points.

Bor suggests the opioid epidemic and diverging access to medical care are factors in this growing divide.